edu.ucar.opensky::articles:12802 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-26T03:43:12.037873 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7m0469r Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change 2013-07-01T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7m0469r https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0730-7 Schuur, E. author Abbott, B. author Bowden, W. author Brovkin, V. author Camill, P. author Canadell, J. author Chanton, J. author Chapin, F. author Christensen, T. author Ciais, P. author Crosby, B. author Czimczik, C. author Grosse, G. author Harden, J. author Hayes, D. author Hugelius, G. author Jastrow, J. author Jones, J. author Kleinen, T. author Koven, C. author Krinner, G. author Kuhry, P. author Lawrence, David M. author McGuire, A. author Natali, S. author Ping, C. author Riley, W. author Rinke, A. author Romanovsky, V. author Sannel, A. author Schädel, C. author Schaefer, K. author Sky, J. author Subin, Z. author Tarnocai, C. author Turetsky, M. author Waldrop, M. author Anthony, K. author Wickland, K. author Wilson, C. author Zimov, S. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher Approximately 1700 Pg of soil carbon (C) are stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost zone, more than twice as much C than in the atmosphere. The overall amount, rate, and form of C released to the atmosphere in a warmer world will influence the strength of the permafrost C feedback to climate change. We used a survey to quantify variability in the perception of the vulnerability of permafrost C to climate change. Experts were asked to provide quantitative estimates of permafrost change in response to four scenarios of warming. For the highest warming scenario (RCP 8.5), experts hypothesized that C release from permafrost zone soils could be 19-45 Pg C by 2040, 162-288 Pg C by 2100, and 381-616 Pg C by 2300 in CO2 equivalent using 100-year CH4 global warming potential (GWP). These values become 50 % larger using 20-year CH4 GWP, with a third to a half of expected climate forcing coming from CH4 even though CH4 was only 2.3 % of the expected C release. Experts projected that two-thirds of this release could be avoided under the lowest warming scenario (RCP 2.6). These results highlight the potential risk from permafrost thaw and serve to frame a hypothesis about the magnitude of this feedback to climate change. However, the level of emissions proposed here are unlikely to overshadow the impact of fossil fuel burning, which will continue to be the main source of C emissions and climate forcing. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright 2013 Springer Netherlands None eng geoscientificInformation