edu.ucar.opensky::articles:42440 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-24T18:02:38.745203 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7nk3kc0 https://doi.org/10.5065/BH6N-5N20 https Related Dataset #1 ERA5 Reanalysis (0.25 Degree Latitude-Longitude Grid) https://doi.org/10.5065/D6RX99HX https Related Service #1 Cheyenne: SGI ICE XA Cluster https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5270332 https Related Software #1 xcape Future changes in the vertical structure of severe convective storm environments over the U.S. Central Great Plains 2024-11-01T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7nk3kc0 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0141.1 Davis, Isaac author Li, F. author Chavas, D. R. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher The effect of warming on severe convective storm potential is commonly explained in terms of changes in vertically integrated (&#8220;bulk&#8221;) environmental parameters, such as CAPE and 0&#8211;6-km shear. However, such events are known to depend on the details of the vertical structure of the thermodynamic and kinematic environment that can change independently of these bulk parameters. This work examines how warming may affect the complete vertical structure of these environments for fixed ranges of values of high CAPE and bulk shear, using data over the central Great Plains from two high-performing climate models (CNRM and MPI). To first order, projected changes in the vertical sounding structure are consistent between the two models: the environment warms approximately uniformly with height at constant relative humidity, and the shear profile remains relatively constant. The boundary layer becomes slightly drier (&#8722;2% to 6% relative humidity) while the free troposphere becomes slightly moister (+1% to 3%), with a slight increase in moist static energy deficit aloft with stronger magnitude in CNRM. CNRM indicates enhanced low-level shear and storm-relative helicity associated with stronger hodograph curvature in the lowest 2 km, whereas MPI shows near-zero change. Both models strongly underestimate shear below 1 km compared to ERA5, indicating large uncertainty in projecting subtle changes in the low-level flow structure in climate models. The evaluation of the net effect of these modest thermodynamic and kinematic changes on severe convective storm outcomes cannot be ascertained here but could be explored in simulation experiments. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication <span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:10pt;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;" data-sheets-root="1">Copyright 2024 American Meteorological Society (AMS).</span> None eng geoscientificInformation