edu.ucar.opensky::articles:17131 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-26T14:11:10.192778 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d70v8f22 Statistical modeling of hot spells and heat waves 2010-10-19T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d70v8f22 https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00924 Furrer, Eva author Katz, Richard author Walter, M. author Furrer, R. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher Although hot spells and heat waves are considered extreme meteorological phenomena, the statistical theory of extreme values has only rarely, if ever, been applied. To address this shortcoming, we extend the point process approach to extreme value analysis to model the frequency, duration, and intensity of hot spells. The annual frequency of hot spells is modeled by a Poisson distribution, their length by a geometric distribution. To account for the temporal dependence of daily maximum temperatures within a hot spell, the excesses over a high threshold are modeled by a conditional generalized Pareto distribution, whose scale parameter depends on the excess on the previous day. Requiring only univariate extreme value theory, our proposed approach is simple enough to be readily generalized to incorporate trends in hot spell characteristics. Through a heat wave simulator, the statistical modeling of hots spells can be extended to apply to more full-fledged heat waves, which are difficult to be modeled directly. Our statistical model for hot spells is fitted to time series of daily maximum temperature during the summer heat wave season at Phoenix, AZ, USA, Fort Collins, CO, USA, and Paris, France. Trends in the frequency, duration, and intensity of hot spells are fitted as well. The heat wave simulator is used to convert any such trends into the corresponding changes in the characteristics of heat waves. By being based at least in part on extreme value theory, our proposed approach is demonstrated to be both more realistic and more flexible than techniques heretofore applied to model hot spells and heat waves. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright 2010 Inter-Research None eng geoscientificInformation