edu.ucar.opensky::articles:26475 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-24T19:30:37.836011 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7k64p25 https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2102.12600 https Related Preprint #1 Constructing Evacuation Evolution Patterns and Decisions Using Mobile Device Location Data: A Case Study of Hurricane Irma A new verification approach? Using coupled natural-human models to evaluate the impact of forecast errors on evacuations 2023-06-01T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7k64p25 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0136.1 Harris, Austin author Roebber, P. author Morss, Rebecca E. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher In addition to measuring forecast accuracy in terms of errors in a tropical system's forecast track and other meteorological characteristics, it is important to measure the impact of those errors on society. With this in mind, the authors designed a coupled natural-human modeling framework with high-level representations of the natural hazard (hurricane), the human system (information flow, evacuation decisions), the built environment (road infrastructure), and connec-tions between elements (forecasts and warning information, traffic). Using the model, this article begins exploring how tropical cyclone forecast errors impact evacuations and, in doing so, builds toward the development of new verification approaches. Specifically, the authors implement track errors representative of 2007 and 2022, and create situations with unexpected rapid intensifica-tion and/or rapid onset, and evaluate their impact on evacuations across real and hypothetical forecast scenarios (e.g., Hurricane Irma, Hurricane Dorian making landfall across east Florida). The results provide first-order evidence that 1) reduced forecast track errors across the 2007-22 period translate to improvements in evacuation outcomes across these cases and 2) unexpected rapid intensification and/or rapid onset scenarios can reduce evacuation rates, and increase traffic, across the most impacted areas. In exploring these relationships, the results demonstrate how experiments with coupled natural-human models can offer a societally relevant complement to traditional metrics of forecast accuracy. In doing so, this work points toward further development of natural-human models and associated methodologies to address these types of questions and improve forecast verification across the weather enterprise. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright 2023 American Meteorological Society (AMS). None eng geoscientificInformation