edu.ucar.opensky::articles:24888 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-24T22:58:37.033495 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7v40zpt https://doi.org/10.5065/D6D50K29 https Related Dataset #1 The International Surface Pressure Databank version 3 https://doi.org/10.5065/D6HH6H41 https Related Dataset #2 JRA-55: Japanese 55-year Reanalysis, Daily 3-Hourly and 6-Hourly Data On the development of GFDL's decadal prediction system: Initialization approaches and retrospective forecast assessment 2021-11-30T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7v40zpt https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002529 Yang, X. author Delworth, T. L. author Zeng, F. author Zhang, Liping author Cooke, W. F. author Harrison, M. J. author Rosati, Anthony author Underwood, S. author Compo, G. P. author McColl, C. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher Using GFDL's new coupled model SPEAR, we have developed a decadal coupled reanalysis/initialization system (DCIS) that does not use subsurface ocean observations. In DCIS, the winds and temperature in the atmosphere, along with sea surface temperature (SST), are restored to observations. Under this approach the ocean component of the coupled model experiences a sequence of surface heat and momentum fluxes that are similar to observations. DCIS offers two initialization approaches, called A1 and A2, which differ only in the atmospheric forcing from observations. In A1, the atmospheric winds/temperature are restored toward the JRA reanalysis; in A2, surface pressure observations are assimilated in the model. Two sets of coupled reanalyses have been completed during 1961-2019 using A1 and A2, and they show very similar multi-decadal variations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Two sets of retrospective decadal forecasts were then conducted using initial conditions from the A1 and A2 reanalyses. In comparison with previous prediction system CM2.1, SPEAR-A1/A2 shows comparable skill of predicting the North Atlantic subpolar gyre SST, which is highly correlated with initial values of AMOC at all lead years. SPEAR-A1 significantly outperforms CM2.1 in predicting multi-decadal SST trends in the Southern Ocean (SO). Both A1 and A2 have skillful prediction of Sahel precipitation and the associated ITCZ shift. The prediction skill of SST is generally lower in A2 than A1 especially over SO presumably due to the sparse surface pressure observations. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. None eng geoscientificInformation