edu.ucar.opensky::articles:22361 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-25T15:38:21.033727 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7v98c4c State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes 2019-03-01T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7v98c4c https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-08745-6 Schewe, J. author Gosling, S. N. author Reyer, C. author Zhao, F. author Ciais, P. author Elliott, J. author Francois, L. author Huber, V. author Lotze, H. K. author Seneviratne, S. I. author van Vliet, M. T. H. author Vautard, R. author Wada, Y. author Breuer, L. author Büchner, M. author Carozza, D. A. author Chang, J. author Coll, M. author Deryng, D. author de Wit, A. author Eddy, T. D. author Folberth, C. author Frieler, K. author Friend, A. D. author Gerten, D. author Gudmundsson, L. author Hanasaki, N. author Ito, A. author Khabarov, N. author Kim, H. author Lawrence, Peter J. author Morfopoulos, C. author Müller, C. author Müller Schmied, H. author Orth, R. author Ostberg, S. author Pokhrel, Y. author Pugh, T. A. M. author Sakurai, G. author Satoh, Y. author Schmid, E. author Stacke, T. author Steenbeek, J. author Steinkamp, J. author Tang, Q. author Tian, H. author Tittensor, D. P. author Volkholz, J. author Wang, X. author Warszawski, L. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright 2019 Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license. None eng geoscientificInformation