edu.ucar.opensky::articles:23888 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-25T15:08:34.568485 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7jh3qht Current and emerging developments in subseasonal to decadal prediction 2020-06-01T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7jh3qht https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0037.1 Merryfield, W. J. author Baehr, J. author Batté, L. author Becker, E. J. author Butler, A. H. author Coelho, C. A. S. author Danabasoglu, Gokhan author Dirmeyer, P. A. author Doblas-Reyes, F. J. author Domeisen, D. I. V. author Ferranti, L. author Ilynia, T. author Kumar, A. author Müller, W. A. author Rixen, M. author Robertson, A. W. author Smith, D. M. author Takaya, Y. author Tuma, M. author Vitart, F. author White, C. J. author Alvarez, M. S. author Ardilouze, C. author Attard, H. author Baggett, C. author Balmaseda, M. A. author Beraki, A. F. author Bhattacharjee, P. S. author Bilbao, R. author de Andrade, F. M. author DeFlorio, M. J. author Díaz, L. B. author Ehsan, M. A. author Fragkoulidis, G. author Grainger, S. author Green, B. W. author Hell, M. C. author Infanti, J. M. author Isensee, K. author Kataoka, T. author Kirtman, B. P. author Klingaman, N. P. author Lee, J. author Mayer, K. author McKay, R. author Mecking, J. V. author Miller, D. E. author Neddermann, N. author Justin Ng, C. H. author Ossó, A. author Pankatz, K. author Peatman, S. author Pegion, K. author Perlwitz, J. author Recalde-Coronel, G. C. author Reintges, A. author Renkl, C. author Solaraju-Murali, B. author Spring, A. author Stan, C. author Sun, Y. Q. author Tozer, C. R. author Vigaud, N. author Woolnough, S. author Yeager, Stephen author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher Weather and climate variations on subseasonal to decadal time scales can have enormous social, economic, and environmental impacts, making skillful predictions on these time scales a valuable tool for decision-makers. As such, there is a growing interest in the scientific, operational, and applications communities in developing forecasts to improve our foreknowledge of extreme events. On subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales, these include high-impact meteorological events such as tropical cyclones, extratropical storms, floods, droughts, and heat and cold waves. On seasonal to decadal (S2D) time scales, while the focus broadly remains similar (e.g., on precipitation, surface and upper-ocean temperatures, and their effects on the probabilities of high-impact meteorological events), understanding the roles of internal variability and externally forced variability such as anthropogenic warming in forecasts also becomes important. The S2S and S2D communities share common scientific and technical challenges. These include forecast initialization and ensemble generation; initialization shock and drift; understanding the onset of model systematic errors; bias correction, calibration, and forecast quality assessment; model resolution; atmosphere-ocean coupling; sources and expectations for predictability; and linking research, operational forecasting, and end-user needs. In September 2018 a coordinated pair of international conferences, framed by the above challenges, was organized jointly by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP). These conferences surveyed the state of S2S and S2D prediction, ongoing research, and future needs, providing an ideal basis for synthesizing current and emerging developments in these areas that promise to enhance future operational services. This article provides such a synthesis. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright 2020 American Meteorological Society (AMS). None eng geoscientificInformation