Identification

Title

Evaluating the time of occurrence of selected global warming levels for CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

Abstract

This technical note explains the rationale for choosing to work with changes in global mean temperature (also known as "Global Warming Levels"; GWL) rather than defined periods in the future. It documents the methodology used to estimate changes in global mean temperature to enable others to reproduce these results for other models. Finally, it presents the estimates of when specific thresholds will be crossed by different models/ensemble members/emissions scenarios in the North American Coordinated Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) for reference by American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) design code developers. The scenarios considered do not include â€œlow emissionsâ€ pathways that do not have a potential to reach high GWL. Additional models associated with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects v5 and v6 (CMIP5, CMIP6) are included in the Appendices. ASCE has decided to consider a future GWL of 3Â°C for structures whose design life will end in 2080-2100, referred to throughout as 3GWL. Given the non-linear relationship between temperature and variables such as snow or freezing rain, this technical note also considers a 2Â°C, or 2GWL. The warmest models in NA-CORDEX cross 2GWL at the start of the simulation period with the earliest ensemble members crossing between 2017-2036, compared to the ensemble mean of 2022-2041. There is one model-emission combination that does not cross the 2GWL threshold prior to 2100. Several model and emission combinations do not cross the 3GWL threshold prior to 2100, although the warmest models cross the threshold between 2036-2055.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7d50sfx

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2025-12-01T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact