edu.ucar.gdex::d651043 eng; USA utf-8 dataset NSF NCAR Geoscience Data Exchange datahelp@ucar.edu https://gdex.ucar.edu NSF NCAR Geoscience Data Exchange The Geoscience Data Exchange (GDEX), managed by the Computational and Information Systems Laboratory (CISL) at NSF NCAR, contains a large collection of meteorological, atmospheric composition, and oceanographic observations, and operational and reanalysis model outputs, integrated with NSF NCAR High Performance Compute services to support atmospheric and geosciences research. download pointOfContact 2026-04-20T22:26:21Z ISO 19115 Geographic Information - Metadata ISO19115:2003/Cor 1 2006 https://doi.org/10.5065/PNFP-T325 iPOGS: CESM HR simulations under the RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5 (2006-2100) scenario d651043 2025-05-23 publication Castruccio, Frederic S. author Chang, Ping author Danabasoglu, Gokhan author Fu, Dan author Rosenbloom, Nan A. author Zhang, Qiuying author King, Teagan author Liu, Xue author NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research publisher Current predictions and projections of future sea-level changes are based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) class climate model simulations. Although this class of models is capable of simulating global sea-level rise and its basic spatial patterns, they are unable to robustly and accurately predict or project future regional and local sea-level changes because of their limitations in representing complex coastline and bathymetry features and regional ocean circulations with their coarse (approximately 100 km) horizontal resolutions. More specifically, sea-level changes within the Gulf of Mexico are closely linked to changes in the Loop Current and its eddies, which cannot be resolved by these CMIP-class models. To address this fundamental issue, we have completed two projections with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) at a Tropical Cyclone-permitting and ocean-mesoscale-eddy-rich horizontal resolution (hereafter simply referred to as CESM-HR). The CESM-HR configuration is based on an earlier CESM version, CESM1.3, with many additional modifications and improvements. CESM-HR uses a 0.25 degree grid in the atmosphere and land components and a 0.1 degree grid in the ocean and sea-ice components. The primary reason for using an older model version, instead of the latest CESM2, is that CESM2 does not support a high-resolution version per the decision by the CESM Scientific Steering Committee. The component models within CESM1.3 are the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5; Neale et al., 2012), the Parallel Ocean Program version 2 (POP2; Danabasoglu et al., 2012; Smith et al., 2010), the Community Ice Code version 4 (CICE4; Hunke and Lipscomb, 2008), and the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4; Lawrence et al., 2011). Following the protocol for the CMIP phase 5 (CMIP5) experiments, the representative concentration pathway 2.6 (RCP 2.6) and representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP 4.5) were used to force the model from 2006 to 2100. RCP 2.6 represents a pathway where greenhouse gas emissions are strongly reduced. This scenario is a so-called "peak" scenario, which means it shows a level of radiative forcing by greenhouse gas emissions peaking by mid-century then returning to 2.6 W/m^2 by 2100. RCP 4.5 represents a stabilization scenario, which means the radiative forcing level stabilizes at 4.5 W/m^2 before 2100 by employing of a range of technologies and strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This CESM-HR ensemble was completed as part of our National Academy of Sciences (NAS) funded project entitled "Improving Prediction and Projection of Gulf of Mexico Sea-Level Changes Using Eddy-Resolving Earth System Models (iPOGS)". This effort is complementary to the 10-member ensemble of CESM-HR historical and future (with RCP 8.5 forcing) climate simulations produced by our National Science Foundation (NSF) funded project entitled "Understanding the role of mesoscale atmosphere-ocean interactions in seasonal-to-decadal climate prediction (MESACLIP)". The RCP 2.6 and 4.5 simulation starts at the end of the member #3 of the 10-member ensemble of historical simulation from MESACLIP, enabling the exploration of future projections associated with varying levels of mitigation and future greenhouse gas emissions. For example, Figure 1 [https://osdata.gdex.ucar.edu/web/datasets/d651043/docs/global_steric_ts.png] shows the global-mean dynamical sea level (DSL) from simulations under different forcings. The stronger warming associated with the RCP 8.5 forcing results in an additional 10 cm rise in global-mean DSL by 2100 compared to that of the RCP 6.0 ensemble. Citation: The two papers linked below are the most appropriate references for the CESM-HR ensemble. To cite the dataset, use Chang et al. (2025). We ask that you also cite the dataset itself using the reference Castruccio et al. (2025) [https://rda.ucar.edu/datasets/d651043/citation/] in any documents or publications using these data. Chang et al. (2020) describes the initial CESM-HR simulations, including the 500-year pre- industrial control simulation and the first 250-year historical and future climate simulation from 1850 to 2100. We would also appreciate receiving a copy of the relevant publications. This will help us to justify keeping the data freely available online in the future. Thank you! completed datahelp@ucar.edu pointOfContact notPlanned dataset https://gdex.ucar.edu/images/ds_logos/default_200_200.png Logo thumbnail from URL png NetCDF dataset Resource Type 2021-03-30 revision 4.4 DataCite Metadata Working Group orginator resourceTypeGeneral CESM > NCAR Community Earth System Model U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Change Master Directory GCMD 2026-04-15 revision 23.7 NASA Global Change Master Directory orginator Valids List: Platforms EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE > SEA LEVEL PRESSURE EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE > SURFACE TEMPERATURE EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE > UPPER AIR TEMPERATURE EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > ATMOSPHERIC WATER VAPOR > WATER VAPOR INDICATORS > HUMIDITY > SPECIFIC HUMIDITY EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > ATMOSPHERIC WINDS > SURFACE WINDS > U/V WIND COMPONENTS EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > ATMOSPHERIC WINDS > WIND DYNAMICS > VERTICAL WIND VELOCITY/SPEED EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > PRECIPITATION > LIQUID PRECIPITATION > RAIN EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > PRECIPITATION > PRECIPITATION PROFILES > LATENT HEAT FLUX U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Change Master Directory GCMD 2026-04-15 revision 23.7 NASA Global Change Master Directory orginator Valids List: Science and Services Keywords Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License None eng utf-8 climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere 2006-01 2100-12 NSF NCAR Geoscience Data Exchange datahelp@ucar.edu https://gdex.ucar.edu distributor 115556708.529 https://gdex.ucar.edu/datasets/d651043/ https Dataset Description Related Link information https://gdex.ucar.edu/datasets/d651043/dataaccess/ https Data Access Related Link download none asNeeded