edu.ucar.opensky::articles:22387 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-25T15:37:50.518373 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7pg1vs6 https://doi.org/10.5065/D6WD3XH5 https Related Software #1 NCAR Command Language (NCL) Benchmark decadal forecast skill for terrestrial water storage estimated by an elasticity framework 2019-03-15T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7pg1vs6 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09245-3 Zhu, E. author Yuan, X. author Wood, Andrew author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher A reliable decadal prediction of terrestrial water storage (TWS) is critical for a sustainable management of freshwater resources and infrastructures. However, the dependence of TWS forecast skill on the accuracy of initial hydrological conditions and decadal climate forecasts is not clear, and the baseline skill remains unknown. Here we use decadal climate hindcasts and perform hydrological ensemble simulations to estimate a benchmark decadal forecast skill for TWS over global major river basins with an elasticity framework that considers varying skill of initial conditions and climate forecasts. The initial condition skill elasticity is higher than climate forecast skill elasticity over many river basins at 1-4 years lead, suggesting the dominance of initial conditions at short leads. However, our benchmark skill for TWS is significantly higher than initial conditions-based forecast skill over 25 and 31% basins for the leads of 1-4 and 3-6 years, and incorporating climate prediction can significantly increase TWS prediction skill over half of the river basins at long leads, especially over mid- and high-latitudes. Our findings imply the possibility of improving decadal TWS forecasts by using dynamical climate prediction information, and the necessity of using the new benchmark skill for verifying the success of decadal hydrological forecasts. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright 2019 Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license. None eng geoscientificInformation