edu.ucar.opensky::articles:25979 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-24T19:59:22.779667 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7ng4vjw Peak refreezing in the Greenland firn layer under future warming scenarios 2022-11-11T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7ng4vjw https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-34524-x Noël, B. author Lenaerts, J. T. M. author Lipscomb, William author Thayer-Calder, Katherine author van den Broeke, M. R. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher Firn (compressed snow) covers approximately 90% of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and currently retains about half of rain and meltwater through refreezing, reducing runoff and subsequent mass loss. The loss of firn could mark a tipping point for sustained GrIS mass loss, since decades to centuries of cold summers would be required to rebuild the firn buffer. Here we estimate the warming required for GrIS firn to reach peak refreezing, using 51 climate simulations statistically downscaled to 1 km resolution, that project the long-term firn layer evolution under multiple emission scenarios (1850-2300). We predict that refreezing stabilises under low warming scenarios, whereas under extreme warming, refreezing could peak and permanently decline starting in southwest Greenland by 2100, and further expanding GrIS-wide in the early 22nd century. After passing this peak, the GrIS contribution to global sea level rise would increase over twenty-fold compared to the last three decades. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. None eng geoscientificInformation