edu.ucar.opensky::articles:24046 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-25T06:44:52.745119 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d74171d5 MJO wind energy and prediction of El Niño 2020-10-01T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d74171d5 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JC016732 Lybarger, Nicholas author Shin, C. author Stan, C. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher This study applies the energetic framework developed to quantify the interaction between the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to El Nino forecasting. The MJO wind power, measured by the covariability of MJO-related wind stress and oceanic Kelvin wave activity, is combined with the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, and two new indices are proposed. The MJO-Kelvin wave-ENSO (MaKE) index is proposed as an ENSO predictor and is shown to slightly outperform Nino 3.4 when applied to observational data sets and to greatly outperform Nino 3.4 when applied to CFSv2 reforecasts of the years 1980-2014. The MJO-Kelvin wave Influence (MaKI) index is proposed to predict MJO influence on developing El Nino events. This index performs reasonably well when applied to observations. The forecast skill of MaKI in the CFSv2 reforecasts suggests that this model does not predict the observed MJO-ENSO relationship as measured by this index. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. None eng geoscientificInformation