edu.ucar.opensky::articles:17769 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-26T02:59:02.758855 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7bk1dt6 How well do integrated assessment models represent non-CO₂ radiative forcing? 2015-12-01T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7bk1dt6 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1485-0 Harmsen, M. author Van Vuuren, D. author van den Berg, M. author Hof, A. author Hope, C. author Krey, V. author Lamarque, Jean-François author Marcucci, A. author Shindell, D. author Schaeffer, M. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher This study aims to create insight in how Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) perform in describing the climate forcing by non-CO₂ gases and aerosols. The simple climate models (SCMs) included in IAMs have been run with the same prescribed anthropogenic emission pathways and compared to analyses with complex earth system models (ESMs) in terms of concentration and radiative forcing levels. In our comparison, particular attention was given to the short-lived forcers' climate effects. In general, SCMs show forcing levels within the expert model ranges. However, the more simple SCMs seem to underestimate forcing differences between baseline and mitigation scenarios because of omission of ozone, black carbon and/or indirect methane forcing effects. Above all, results also show that among IAMs there is a significant spread (0.74 W/m2 in 2100) in non-CO₂ forcing projections for a 2.6 W/m2 mitigation scenario, mainly due to uncertainties in the indirect effects of aerosols. This has large implications for determining optimal mitigation strategies among IAMs with regard to required CO₂ forcing targets and policy costs. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright 2015 Springer. None eng geoscientificInformation