edu.ucar.opensky::articles:21627 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-25T15:59:28.734448 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d70k2cbs Key drivers of ozone change and its radiative forcing over the 21st century 2018-05-03T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d70k2cbs https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6121-2018 Iglesias-Suarez, F. author Kinnison, Douglas E. author Rap, A. author Maycock, A. C. author Wild, O. author Young, P. J. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher Over the 21st century changes in both tropospheric and stratospheric ozone are likely to have important consequences for the Earth's radiative balance. In this study, we investigate the radiative forcing from future ozone changes using the Community Earth System Model (CESM1), with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), and including fully coupled radiation and chemistry schemes. Using year 2100 conditions from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, we quantify the individual contributions to ozone radiative forcing of (1) climate change, (2) reduced concentrations of ozone depleting substances (ODSs), and (3) methane increases. We calculate future ozone radiative forcings and their standard error (SE; associated with inter-annual variability of ozone) relative to year 2000 of (1) 33 +/- 104m Wm(-2), (2) 163 +/- 109m Wm(-2), and (3) 238 +/- 113m Wm(-2) due to climate change, ODSs, and methane, respectively. Our best estimate of net ozone forcing in this set of simulations is 430 +/- 130m Wm(-2) relative to year 2000 and 760 +/- 230m Wm(-2) relative to year 1750, with the 95% confidence interval given by +/- 30 %. We find that the overall long-term tropospheric ozone forcing from methane chemistry-climate feedbacks related to OH and methane lifetime is relatively small (46m Wm(-2)). Ozone radiative forcing associated with climate change and stratospheric ozone recovery are robust with regard to background climate conditions, even though the ozone response is sensitive to both changes in atmospheric composition and climate. Changes in stratospheric-produced ozone account for similar to 50% of the overall radiative forcing for the 2000-2100 period in this set of simulations, highlighting the key role of the stratosphere in determining future ozone radiative forcing. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright 2018 Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. None eng geoscientificInformation