edu.ucar.opensky::articles:24237 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-25T06:31:44.594352 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d76d5xc4 https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.11298 https Related Dataset #1 NCAR CESM2-WACCM-FV2 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.11485 https Related Dataset #2 E3SM-Project E3SM1.1 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1414 https Related Dataset #3 NOAA-GFDL GFDL-ESM4 model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1567 https Related Dataset #4 MOHC UKESM1.0-LL model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.3356 https Related Dataset #5 CAS FGOALS-g3 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4066 https Related Dataset #6 CMIP6 simulations of the CNRM-CERFACS based on CNRM-CM6-1 model for CMIP experiment historical https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4068 https Related Dataset #7 CNRM-CERFACS CNRM-ESM2-1 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4497 https Related Dataset #8 E3SM-Project E3SM1.0 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.5195 https Related Dataset #9 IPSL IPSL-CM6A-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.5262 https Related Dataset #10 IPSL IPSL-CM6A-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp126 https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6113 https Related Dataset #11 MOHC UKESM1.0-LL model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6594 https Related Dataset #12 MPI-M MPI-ESM1.2-HR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6595 https Related Dataset #13 MPI-M MPI-ESM1.2-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.8594 https Related Dataset #14 NOAA-GFDL GFDL-CM4 model output historical https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.8597 https Related Dataset #15 NOAA-GFDL GFDL-ESM4 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.9242 https Related Dataset #16 NOAA-GFDL GFDL-CM4 model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3952695 https Related Software #1 ESMValCore https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3970975 https Related Software #2 ESMValTool Evaluating stratospheric ozone and water vapour changes in CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2100 2021-03-31T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d76d5xc4 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021 Keeble, J. author Hassler, B. author Banerjee, A. author Checa-Garcia, R. author Chiodo, G. author Davis, S. author Eyring, V. author Griffiths, P. T. author Morgenstern, O. author Nowack, P. author Zeng, G. author Zhang, J. author Bodeker, G. author Burrows, S. author Cameron-Smith, P. author Cugnet, D. author Danek, C. author Deushi, M. author Horowitz, L. W. author Kubin, A. author Li, L. author Lohmann, G. author Michou, M. author Mills, Michael J. author Nabat, P. author Olivié, D. author Park, S. author Seland, Ø. author Stoll, J. author Wieners, K. author Wu, T. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system, and past and future changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. Here, we evaluate long-term changes in these species from the pre-industrial period (1850) to the end of the 21st century in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models under a range of future emissions scenarios. There is good agreement between the CMIP multimodel mean and observations for total column ozone (TCO), although there is substantial variation between the individual CMIP6 models. For the CMIP6 multi-model mean, global mean TCO has increased from similar to 300DU in 1850 to similar to 305DU in 1960, before rapidly declining in the 1970s and 1980s following the use and emission of halogenated ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). TCO is projected to return to 1960s values by the middle of the 21st century under the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, and under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios TCO values are projected to be similar to 10DU higher than the 1960s values by 2100. However, under the SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-1.6 scenarios, TCO is not projected to return to the 1960s values despite reductions in halogenated ODSs due to decreases in tropospheric ozone mixing ratios. This global pattern is similar to regional patterns, except in the tropics where TCO under most scenarios is not projected to return to 1960s values, either through reductions in tropospheric ozone under SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6, or through reductions in lower stratospheric ozone resulting from an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation under other Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). In contrast to TCO, there is poorer agreement between the CMIP6 multi-model mean and observed lower stratospheric water vapour mixing ratios, with the CMIP6 multi-model mean underestimating observed water vapour mixing ratios by similar to 0.5 ppmv at 70 hPa. CMIP6 multi-model mean stratospheric water vapour mixing ratios in the tropical lower stratosphere have increased by similar to 0.5 ppmv from the pre-industrial to the present-day period and are projected to increase further by the end of the 21st century. The largest increases (similar to 2 ppmv) are simulated under the future scenarios with the highest assumed forcing pathway (e.g. SSP5-8.5). Tropical lower stratospheric water vapour, and to a lesser extent TCO, shows large variations following explosive volcanic eruptions. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. None eng geoscientificInformation