edu.ucar.opensky::articles:18492 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-26T02:53:30.155558 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7jq12n2 Projections of leaf area index in earth system models 2016-03-09T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7jq12n2 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-211-2016 Mahowald, N. author Lo, F. author Zheng, Y. author Harrison, L. author Funk, C. author Lombardozzi, Danica author Goodale, C. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher The area of leaves in the plant canopy, measured as leaf area index (LAI), modulates key land-atmosphere interactions, including the exchange of energy, moisture, carbon dioxide (CO2), and other trace gases and aerosols, and is therefore an essential variable in predicting terrestrial carbon, water, and energy fluxes. Here our goal is to characterize the LAI projections from the latest generation of earth system models (ESMs) for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios. On average, the models project increases in LAI in both RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 over most of the globe, but also show decreases in some parts of the tropics. Because of projected increases in variability, there are also more frequent periods of low LAI across broad regions of the tropics. Projections of LAI changes varied greatly among models: some models project very modest changes, while others project large changes, usually increases. Modeled LAI typically increases with modeled warming in the high latitudes, but often decreases with increasing local warming in the tropics. The models with the most skill in simulating current LAI in the tropics relative to satellite observations tend to project smaller increases in LAI in the tropics in the future compared to the average of all the models. Using LAI projections to identify regions that may be vulnerable to climate change presents a slightly different picture than using precipitation projections, suggesting LAI may be an additional useful tool for understanding climate change impacts. Going forward, users of LAI projections from the CMIP5 ESMs evaluated here should be aware that model outputs do not exhibit clear-cut relationships to vegetation carbon and precipitation. Our findings underscore the need for more attention to LAI projections, in terms of understanding the drivers of projected changes and improvements to model skill. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright 2016 Authors. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. None eng geoscientificInformation