edu.ucar.opensky::articles:22806 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-25T15:27:23.994903 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7w95d96 Skillful prediction of monthly major hurricane activity in the North Atlantic with two-way nesting 2019-08-16T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7w95d96 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083526 Gao, K. author Chen, Jan-Huey author Harris, L. author Sun, Y. author LIN, S. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher We investigate the monthly prediction of North Atlantic hurricane and especially major hurricane activity based on the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory High-Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM). We compare the performance of two grid configurations: a globally uniform 25-km grid and the other with an 8-km interactive nest over the tropical North Atlantic. Both grid configurations show skills in predicting anomalous monthly hurricane frequency and accumulated cyclone energy. Particularly, the 8-km nested model shows improved skills in predicting major hurricane frequency and accumulated cyclone energy. The skill in anomalous monthly hurricane occurrence prediction arises from the accurate prediction of zonal wind shear anomalies in the Main Development Region, which in turn arises from the sea surface temperature anomalies persisted from the initialization time. The enhanced resolution on the nested grid permits a better representation of hurricanes and especially intense hurricanes, thereby showing the ability and the potential for prediction of major hurricanes on subseasonal timescales. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright 2019 American Geophysical Union. None eng geoscientificInformation