edu.ucar.opensky::articles:24766 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-24T23:08:39.565292 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7wm1hv6 Implementation of an artificial neural network for storm surge forecasting 2021-07-16T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7wm1hv6 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033266 Ramos Valle, Alexandra N. author Curchitser, E. N. author Bruyere, Cindy L. author McOwen, S. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher Accurate and timely storm surge forecasts are essential during tropical cyclone events in order to assess the magnitude and location of the impacts. Coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamical models provide accurate measures of storm surge but remain too computationally expensive to run for real-time forecasting purposes. Therefore, it is common to utilize a parametric vortex model, implemented within a hydrodynamic model, which decreases computational time at the expense of forecast accuracy. Recently, data-driven neural networks are being implemented as an alternative due to their combined efficiency and high accuracy. This work seeks to examine how an artificial neural network (ANN) can be used to make accurate storm surge predictions, and explores the added value of using a recurrent neural network (RNN). In particular, it is concerned with determining the parameters needed to successfully implement a neural network model for the Mid-Atlantic Bight region. The neural network models were trained with modeled data resulting from coupling of the Hybrid Weather Research and Forecasting cyclone model (HWCM) and the Advanced Circulation Model. An ensemble of synthetic, but physically plausible, cyclones were simulated using the HWCM and used as input for the hydrodynamic model. Tests of the ANN were conducted to investigate the optimal lead-time configuration of the input data and the neural network architecture needed to minimize storm surge forecast errors. Results highlight the accuracy of the ANN in forecasting moderate storm surge levels, while indicating a deficiency in capturing the magnitude of the peak values, which is improved in the implementation of the RNN. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright 2021 American Geophysical Union. None eng geoscientificInformation