edu.ucar.opensky::articles:21270 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-25T16:08:27.827164 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d73n260v Impact of intraseasonal oscillations on the tropical cyclone activity over the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean Sea in GFDL HiRAM 2017-12-19T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d73n260v https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027756 Gao, K. author Chen, Jan-Huey author Harris, L. M. author LIN, S. author Xiang, Baoqiang author Zhao, M. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher The tropical cyclones (TCs) that form over the warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico region pose a major threat to the surrounding coastal communities. Skillful subseasonal prediction of TC activity is important for early preparedness and reducing the TC damage in this region. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a 25km resolution Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) in simulating the modulation of the TC activity in the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean Sea by the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) based on multiyear retrospective seasonal predictions. We demonstrate that the HiRAM faithfully captures the observed influence of ISO on TC activity over the region of interest, including the formation of tropical storms and (major) hurricanes, as well as the landfalling storms. This is likely because of the realistic representation of the large-scale anomalies associated with boreal summer ISO over Northeast Pacific in HiRAM, especially the enhanced (reduced) moisture throughout the troposphere during the convectively enhanced (suppressed) phase of ISO. The reasonable performance of HiRAM suggests its potential for the subseasonal prediction of regional TC risk. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright 2017 American Geophysical Union. None eng geoscientificInformation