edu.ucar.opensky::articles:24715 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-24T23:03:58.161008 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d76d5xf1 https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.2081 https Related Dataset #1 NASA-GISS GISS-E2-2-G model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.3714 https Related Dataset #2 CNRM-CERFACS CNRM-ESM2-1 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP for experiment 1pctCO2 https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.5356 https Related Dataset #3 MRI MRI-ESM2.0 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP 1pctCO2 https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.5792 https Related Dataset #4 MOHC UKESM1.0-LL model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP 1pctCO2 https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6109 https Related Dataset #5 MOHC HadGEM3-GC31-LL model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6113 https Related Dataset #6 MOHC UKESM1.0-LL model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.8473 https Related Dataset #7 NOAA-GFDL GFDL-ESM4 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP 1pctCO2 https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.8597 https Related Dataset #8 NOAA-GFDL GFDL-ESM4 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical Slowdown of the greening trend in natural vegetation with further rise in atmospheric CO2 2021-09-13T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d76d5xf1 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021 Winkler, A. J. author Myneni, R. B. author Hannart, A. author Sitch, S. author Haverd, V. author Lombardozzi, Danica author Arora, V. K. author Pongratz, J. author Nabel, J. E. M. S. author Goll, D. S. author Kato, E. author Tian, H. author Arneth, A. author Friedlingstein, P. author Jain, A. K. author Zaehle, S. author Brovkin, V. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher Satellite data reveal widespread changes in Earth's vegetation cover. Regions intensively attended to by humans are mostly greening due to land management. Natural vegetation, on the other hand, is exhibiting patterns of both greening and browning in all continents. Factors linked to anthropogenic carbon emissions, such as CO2 fertilization, climate change, and consequent disturbances such as fires and droughts, are hypothesized to be key drivers of changes in natural vegetation. A rigorous regional attribution at the biome level that can be scaled to a global picture of what is behind the observed changes is currently lacking. Here we analyze different datasets of decades-long satellite observations of global leaf area index (LAI, 19812017) as well as other proxies for vegetation changes and identify several clusters of significant long-term changes. Using process-based model simulations (Earth system and land surface models), we disentangle the effects of anthropogenic carbon emissions on LAI in a probabilistic setting applying causal counterfactual theory. The analysis prominently indicates the effects of climate change on many biomes - warming in northern ecosystems (greening) and rainfall anomalies in tropical biomes (browning). The probabilistic attribution method clearly identifies the CO2 fertilization effect as the dominant driver in only two biomes, the temperate forests and cool grasslands, challenging the view of a dominant global-scale effect. Altogether, our analysis reveals a slowing down of greening and strengthening of browning trends, particularly in the last 2 decades. Most models substantially underestimate the emerging vegetation browning, especially in the tropical rainforests. Leaf area loss in these productive ecosystems could be an early indicator of a slowdown in the terrestrial carbon sink. Models need to account for this effect to realize plausible climate projections of the 21st century. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. None eng geoscientificInformation