edu.ucar.opensky::articles:26196 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-24T19:39:05.880382 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7736vv5 Spurious Indo-Pacific connections to internal Atlantic multidecadal variability introduced by the global temperature residual method 2023-02-16T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7736vv5 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100574 Deser, Clara author Phillips, Adam author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher The relative contributions of external forcing and internal processes to the observed spatial and temporal characteristics of "Atlantic Multidecadal Variability" (AMV) are still under debate. Here, the efficacy of the commonly-used "global temperature residual method" for isolating the internal component of AMV is investigated by means of model Large Ensembles where the truth is known a priori. In this method, local sea surface temperature variability associated with global-mean temperature (G) is removed via linear regression, and the residuals regressed upon the North Atlantic residual timeseries. We show that this method introduces spurious connections over the Indo-Pacific due to the fact that G in any single realization includes both external and internal components: the latter dominated by influences from Pacific Decadal Variability independent of AMV. This methodological shortcoming can be overcome by using the forced component of G in the residual method applied to individual model realizations and to observations. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. None eng geoscientificInformation