edu.ucar.opensky::articles:18806 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-26T02:45:53.711799 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7sf2xtf Using GRACE and climate model simulations to predict mass loss of Alaskan glaciers through 2100 2016-08-01T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7sf2xtf https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2016.49 Wahr, J. author Burgess, E. author Swenson, Sean author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher Glaciers in Alaska are currently losing mass at a rate of similar to-50 Gt a(-1), one of the largest ice loss rates of any regional collection of mountain glaciers on Earth. Existing projections of Alaska's future sea-level contributions tend to be divergent and are not tied directly to regional observations. Here we develop a simple, regional observation-based projection of Alaska's future sea-level contribution. We compute a time series of recent Alaska glacier mass variability using monthly GRACE gravity fields from August 2002 through December 2014. We also construct a three-parameter model of Alaska glacier mass variability based on monthly ERA-Interim snowfall and temperature fields. When these three model parameters are fitted to the GRACE time series, the model explains 94% of the variance of the GRACE data. Using these parameter values, we then apply the model to simulated fields of monthly temperature and snowfall from the Community Earth System Model, to obtain predictions of mass variations through 2100. We conclude that mass loss rates may increase between -80 and -110 Gt a(-1) by 2100, with a total sea-level rise contribution of 19 +/- 4 mm during the 21st century. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License None eng geoscientificInformation