edu.ucar.opensky::articles:6096 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-26T15:36:43.251617 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7qz2b40 Simulation of secular trends in the middle atmosphere, 1950-2003 2007-05-03T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7qz2b40 https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007485 García, Rolando R. author Marsh, Daniel author Kinnison, Douglas E. author Boville, Byron A. author Sassi, Fabrizio author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher We have used the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model to produce a small (three-member) ensemble of simulations of the period 1950 - 2003. Comparison of model results against available observations shows that for the most part, the model is able to reproduce well the observed trends in zonal mean temperature and ozone, both as regards their magnitude and their distribution in latitude and altitude. Calculated trends in water vapor, on the other hand, are not at all consistent with observations from either the HALOE satellite instrument or the Boulder, Colorado, hygrosonde data set. We show that such lack of agreement is actually to be expected because water vapor has various sources of low-frequency variability (heating due to volcanic eruptions, the quasi-biennial oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation) that can confound the determination of secular trends. The simulations also reveal the presence of other interesting behavior, such as the lack of any significant temperature trend near the mesopause, a decrease in the stratospheric age of air, and the rare occurrence of an extremely disturbed Southern Hemisphere winter. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication An edited version of this article was published by the American Geophysical Union. Copyright 2007 the American Geophysical Union. None eng geoscientificInformation