edu.ucar.opensky::articles:26354 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-24T19:31:13.553415 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7474fvw https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7623726 https Related Dataset #1 Forcing, cloud feedbacks, cloud masking, and internal variability in the cloud radiative effect satellite record (Data) https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7623105 https Related Software #1 Forcing, cloud feedbacks, cloud masking, and internal variability in the cloud radiative effect satellite record (Code) Forcing, cloud feedbacks, cloud masking, and internal variability in the Cloud Radiative Effect satellite record 2023-06-01T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7474fvw https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0555.1 Raghuraman, S. P. author Paynter, D. author Menzel, Raymond author Ramaswamy, V. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher Satellite observations show a near-zero trend in the top-of-atmosphere global-mean net cloud radiative effect (CRE), suggesting that clouds did not further cool nor heat the planet over the last two decades. The causes of this observed trend are unknown and can range from effective radiative forcing (ERF) to cloud feedbacks, cloud masking, and internal variability. We find that the near-zero NetCRE trend is a result of a significant negative trend in the longwave (LW) CRE and a significant positive trend in the shortwave (SW) CRE, cooling and heating the climate system, respectively. We find that it is exceptionally unlikely (<1% probability) that internal variability can explain the observed LW and SW CRE trends. Instead, the majority of the observed LWCRE trend arises from cloud masking wherein increases in greenhouse gases reduce OLR in all-sky conditions less than in clear-sky conditions. In SWCRE, rapid cloud adjustments to greenhouse gases, aerosols, and natural forcing agents (ERF) explain a majority of the observed trend. Over the northeast Pacific, we show that ERF, hitherto an ignored factor, contributes as much as cloud feedbacks to the observed SWCRE trend. Large contributions from ERF and cloud masking to the global-mean LW and SW CRE trends are supplemented by negative LW and positive SW cloud feedback trends, which are detectable at 80%-95% confidence depending on the observational uncertainty assumed. The large global-mean LW and SW cloud feedbacks cancel, leaving a small net cloud feedback that is unconstrained in sign, implying that clouds could amplify or dampen global warming. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright 2023 American Meteorological Society (AMS). None eng geoscientificInformation