edu.ucar.opensky::articles:27428 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-24T18:10:18.809584 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7js9vq6 Predicting interplanetary shock occurrence for solar cycle 25: Opportunities and challenges in space weather research 2024-08-01T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7js9vq6 https://doi.org/10.1029/2024SW003964 Oliveira, D. M. author Allen, R. C. author Alves, L. R. author S. P. Blake author Carter, B. A. author Chakrabarty, D. author G. D'Angelo author K. Delano author E. Echer author C. P. Ferradas author M. G. Finley author Gallardo-Lacourt, B. author Gershman, D. author J. W. Gjerloev author Habarulema, J. B. author Hartinger, M. D. author Hajra, R. author Hayakawa, H. author L. Juusola author Laundal, K. M. author Leamon, R. J. author Madelaire, M. author M. Martínez-Ledesma author McIntosh, Scott author Miyoshi, Y. author Moldwin, M. B. author E. Nahayo author Nandy, D. author B. Nilam author Nykyri, K. author W. R. Paterson author M. Piersanti author E. Pietropaolo author Rodger, C. J. author T. Shah author A. W. Smith author Srivastava, N. author Tsurutani, B. T. author S. T. Ram author L. A. Upton author Veenadhari, B. author S. Vidal-Luengo author Viljanen, A. author Vines, S. K. author V. K. Yadav author Yee, J. author J. W. Weygand author E. Zesta author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher Interplanetary (IP) shocks are perturbations observed in the solar wind. IP shocks correlate well with solar activity, being more numerous during times of high sunspot numbers. Earth-bound IP shocks cause many space weather effects that are promptly observed in geospace and on the ground. Such effects can pose considerable threats to human assets in space and on the ground, including satellites in the upper atmosphere and power infrastructure. Thus, it is of great interest to the space weather community to (a) keep an accurate catalog of shocks observed near Earth, and (b) be able to forecast shock occurrence as a function of the solar cycle (SC). In this work, we use a supervised machine learning regression model to predict the number of shocks expected in SC25 using three previously published sunspot predictions for the same cycle. We predict shock counts to be around 275 +/- 10, which is similar to 47% higher than the shock occurrence in SC24 (187 +/- 8), but still smaller than the shock occurrence in SC23 (343 +/- 12). With the perspective of having more IP shocks on the horizon for SC25, we briefly discuss many opportunities in space weather research for the remainder years of SC25. The next decade or so will bring unprecedented opportunities for research and forecasting effects in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and on the ground. As a result, we predict SC25 will offer excellent opportunities for shock occurrences and data availability for conducting space weather research and forecasting. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. None eng geoscientificInformation