edu.ucar.opensky::articles:18786 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-26T02:47:50.550108 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7v69m8d Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009 2016-07-01T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7v69m8d https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GB005405 McGuire, A. D. author Koven, C. author Lawrence, David M. author Clein, J. S. author Xia, J. author Beer, C. author Burke, E. author Chen, G. author Chen, X. author Delire, C. author Jafarov, E. author MacDougall, A. H. author Marchenko, S. author Nicolsky, D. author Peng, S. author Rinke, A. author Saito, K. author Zhang, W. author Alkama, R. author Bohn, T. J. author Ciais, P. author Decharme, B. author Ekici, A. author Gouttevin, I. author Hajima, T. author Hayes, D. J. author Ji, D. author Krinner, G. author Lettenmaier, D. P. author Luo, Y. author Miller, P. A. author Moore, J. C. author Romanovsky, V. author Schädel, C. author Schaefer, K. author Schuur, E. A. author Smith, B. author Sueyoshi, T. author Zhuang, Q. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher A significant portion of the large amount of carbon (C) currently stored in soils of the permafrost region in the Northern Hemisphere has the potential to be emitted as the greenhouse gases CO2 and CH4 under a warmer climate. In this study we evaluated the variability in the sensitivity of permafrost and C in recent decades among land surface model simulations over the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009. The 15 model simulations all predict a loss of near-surface permafrost (within 3 m) area over the region, but there are large differences in the magnitude of the simulated rates of loss among the models (0.2 to 58.8 × 103 km2 yr−1). Sensitivity simulations indicated that changes in air temperature largely explained changes in permafrost area, although interactions among changes in other environmental variables also played a role. All of the models indicate that both vegetation and soil C storage together have increased by 156 to 954 Tg C yr−1 between 1960 and 2009 over the permafrost region even though model analyses indicate that warming alone would decrease soil C storage. Increases in gross primary production (GPP) largely explain the simulated increases in vegetation and soil C. The sensitivity of GPP to increases in atmospheric CO2 was the dominant cause of increases in GPP across the models, but comparison of simulated GPP trends across the 1982–2009 period with that of a global GPP data set indicates that all of the models overestimate the trend in GPP. Disturbance also appears to be an important factor affecting C storage, as models that consider disturbance had lower increases in C storage than models that did not consider disturbance. To improve the modeling of C in the permafrost region, there is the need for the modeling community to standardize structural representation of permafrost and carbon dynamics among models that are used to evaluate the permafrost C feedback and for the modeling and observational communities to jointly develop data sets and methodologies to more effectively benchmark models. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright 2016 American Geophysical Union. None eng geoscientificInformation