edu.ucar.opensky::articles:23341 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-25T15:15:06.747033 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7cz3bbz Simulated trends in ionosphere-thermosphere climate due to predicted main magnetic field changes from 2015 to 2065 2020-03-01T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7cz3bbz https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JA027738 Cnossen, I. author Maute, A. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher The strength and structure of the Earth's magnetic field is gradually changing. During the next 50 years the dipole moment is predicted to decrease by 3.5%, with the South Atlantic Anomaly expanding, deepening, and continuing to move westward, while the magnetic dip poles move northwestward. We used simulations with the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model to study how predicted changes in the magnetic field will affect the climate of the thermosphere-ionosphere system from 2015 to 2065. The global mean neutral density in the thermosphere is expected to increase slightly, by up to 1% on average or up to 2% during geomagnetically disturbed conditions. This is due to an increase in Joule heating power, mainly in the Southern Hemisphere. Global mean changes in total electron content (TEC) range from 3% to +4%, depending on season and UT. However, regional changes can be much larger, up to about 35% in the region of 45°S to 45°N and 110°W to 0°W during daytime. Changes in the vertical drift are the most important driver of changes in TEC, although other plasma transport processes also play a role. A reduction in the low-latitude upward drift weakens the equatorial ionization anomaly in the longitude sector of 60°W, manifesting itself as a local increase in electron density over Jicamarca (12.0°S, 76.9°W). The predicted increase in neutral density associated with main magnetic field changes is very small compared to observed trends and other trend drivers, but the predicted changes in TEC could make a significant contribution to observationally detectable trends. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. None eng geoscientificInformation