edu.ucar.opensky::articles:26486 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-24T19:29:21.996456 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d751438c Tropical cyclone forecasts in the DIMOSIC: Medium-range forecast models with common initial conditions 2023-07-01T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d751438c https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EA002821 Chen, Jan-Huey author ZHOU, L. author Magnusson, L. author McTaggart-Cowan, R. author Köhler, M. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher The tropical cyclone (TC) forecast skill of the eight global medium-range forecast models which are participating in the DIfferent Models, Same Initial Conditions project is investigated in this study. Each model was used to generate 10-day forecasts from the same initial conditions provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. There are a total of 123 initial dates spanning in one year from June 2018 to June 2019 at 3-day intervals. The TC track and intensity forecasts are evaluated against the best track data set. TC-related precipitation and tropical cyclogenesis forecasts are also compared to explore the differences and similarities of TC forecasts across the models. This comparison of TC forecasts allows model developers in different centers to benchmark their model against other models, with the impact of the initial condition quality removed. The verifications reveal that most models show slow-moving and right-of-track biases in their TC track forecasts. Also, a common dry bias in TC-related precipitation indicates a general deficiency in TC intensity and convection in the models which should be related to insufficient model resolution. These findings provide important references for future model developments. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. None eng geoscientificInformation