edu.ucar.opensky::articles:25294 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-24T22:45:53.538180 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7c53qgc https://doi.org/10.5065/D6KW5D8M https Related Dataset #1 ONR Tropical Cyclone Intensity 2015 NASA WB-57 HDSS Dropsonde Data. Version 1.0 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6366545 https Related Dataset #2 Azimuthally averaged tangential wind and radial wind for Hurricane Patricia simulations and SAMURAI analysis at validation time Dynamics and predictability of tropical cyclone rapid intensification in ensemble simulations of Hurricane Patricia (2015) 2022-04-27T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7c53qgc https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD036079 Tao, D. author Leeuwen, P. J. author Bell, M. author Ying, Yue author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher Hurricane Patricia (2015) over the eastern Pacific was a record-breaking tropical cyclone (TC) under a very favorable environment during its rapid intensification (RI) period, which makes it an optimal real case for studying RI dynamics and predictability. In this study, we performed ensemble Kalman filter analyses at Patricia's early development stage using both traditional observations and the Office of Naval Research Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI) field campaign data. It is shown that assimilating the inner-core TCI observations produces a stronger initial vortex and significantly improves the prediction of RI. Analysis of observation sensitivity experiments shows that the deep-layer dropsonde observations have high impact on both the primary and secondary circulations for the entire troposphere while the radar observations have the most impact on the primary circulations near aircraft flight level. A wide range of intensification scenarios are obtained through two sets of ensemble forecasts initialized with and without assimilating the TCI data prior to the RI onset. Verification of the ensemble forecasts against the TCI observations during the RI period shows that forecast errors toward later stages can originate from two different error sources at early stages of the vortex structure: One is a timing error from a delayed vortex development such that the TC evolution is the same but shifted in time; the other is due to a totally different storm such that there is no moment in time the simulated storm can obtain a correct TC structure. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. None eng geoscientificInformation