edu.ucar.opensky::articles:25662 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-24T20:05:37.782505 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7hh6pvq https://doi.org/10.5065/9kcn-9y79 https Related Dataset #1 Assessing Responses and Impacts of Solar climate intervention on the Earth system with stratospheric aerosol injection simulations (ARISE-SAI-1.5) https://doi.org/10.5065/D6RX99HX https Related Service #1 Cheyenne: SGI ICE XA Cluster The Seasonal-to-Multiyear Large Ensemble (SMYLE) prediction system using the Community Earth System Model version 2 2022-08-29T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7hh6pvq https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6451-2022 Yeager, Stephen author Rosenbloom, Nan author Glanville, Anne A. author Wu, Xian author Simpson, Isla R. author Li, Hui author Molina, Maria author Krumhardt, Kristen author Mogen, S. author Lindsay, Keith author Lombardozzi, Danica author Wieder, William author Kim, Who M. author Richter, Jadwiga H. author Long, Matthew author Danabasoglu, Gokhan author Bailey, David A. author Holland, Marika M. author Lovenduski, N. author Strand, Warren G. author King, Teagan author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher The potential for multiyear prediction of impactful Earth system change remains relatively underexplored compared to shorter (subseasonal to seasonal) and longer (decadal) timescales. In this study, we introduce a new initialized prediction system using the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) that is specifically designed to probe potential and actual prediction skill at lead times ranging from 1 month out to 2 years. The Seasonal-to-Multiyear Large Ensemble (SMYLE) consists of a collection of 2-year-long hindcast simulations, with four initializations per year from 1970 to 2019 and an ensemble size of 20. A full suite of output is available for exploring near-term predictability of all Earth system components represented in CESM2. We show that SMYLE skill for El Nino-Southern Oscillation is competitive with other prominent seasonal prediction systems, with correlations exceeding 0.5 beyond a lead time of 12 months. A broad overview of prediction skill reveals varying degrees of potential for useful multiyear predictions of seasonal anomalies in the atmosphere, ocean, land, and sea ice. The SMYLE dataset, experimental design, model, initial conditions, and associated analysis tools are all publicly available, providing a foundation for research on multiyear prediction of environmental change by the wider community. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. None eng geoscientificInformation