edu.ucar.opensky::technotes:552 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-26T02:25:40.674804 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7r78hpk Impact of Climate Change on Gulf of Mexico Hurricanes 2017-08-16T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7r78hpk https://doi.org/10.5065/D6RN36J3 Bruyere, Cindy L. author Rasmussen, Roy M. author Gutmann, Ethan D. author Done, James M. author Tye, Mari author Jaye, Abigail B. author Prein, Andreas author Mooney, Priscilla author Ge, Ming author Fredrick, Sherrie Mae author Friis-Hansen, Peter author Garre, L. author Veldore, V. author Niesel, J. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher A state of the art modeling study was undertaken to estimate the most likely impacts of climate change on Gulf of Mexico hurricane intensity and frequency. The modeling study entailed the use of two state of the art sets of future climate change simulations. The first simulation was conducted using a Climate Ensemble approach over a large domain and at relatively high resolution compared to global climate models, and the second simulation was conducted at 4km higher resolution, over a limited domain covering a smaller sub-set of North America. Both simulations are based on the WRF (Skamarock et al., 2008) model. The first simulation addresses frequency changes of hurricanes, and to a lesser extent the change in intensity, while the second, addressed mainly changes in intensity of hurricanes in a future climate. The combined results of these two simulations show: * A tendency towards fewer hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and a slight reduction in the proportion of Atlantic hurricanes entering the Gulf. * An increased proportion of category 3, 4, and 5 storms in the Gulf of Mexico. * Increased precipitation for all cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico. * The characteristics of future hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico are projected to be similar in size and track speed to current hurricanes. * These simulations predict a ~10% increase in cyclone damage potential for the most intense hurricanes. The prediction for fewer but more damaging hurricanes suggests the potential for substantial impacts on infrastructure and operations in the GOM in the future. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Weather research/forecast models Tropical cyclones Peak intensity Tropical or extratropical cyclone frequency/intensity theme U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Change Master Directory GCMD 2021-09-17 revision 11.2 NASA Global Change Master Directory originator Valids List: Science and Services Keywords Copyright Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. None eng geoscientificInformation