edu.ucar.opensky::articles:23959 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-25T06:40:06.852425 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7ms3x2v GFDL's SPEAR seasonal prediction system: Initialization and Ocean Tendency Adjustment (OTA) for coupled model predictions 2020-12-01T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7ms3x2v https://doi.org/10.1029/2020MS002149 Lu, F. author Harrison, M. J. author Rosati, Anthony author Delworth, T. L. author Yang, Xiaosong author Cooke, William F. author Jia, Liwei author McHugh, C. author Johnson, N. C. author Bushuk, Mitchell author Zhang, Y. author Adcroft, A. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher The next-generation seasonal prediction system is built as part of the Seamless System for Prediction and EArth System Research (SPEAR) at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). SPEAR is an effort to develop a seamless system for prediction and research across time scales. The ensemble-based ocean data assimilation (ODA) system is updated for Modular Ocean Model Version 6 (MOM6), the ocean component of SPEAR. Ocean initial conditions for seasonal predictions, as well as an ocean state estimation, are produced by the MOM6 ODA system in coupled SPEAR models. Initial conditions of the atmosphere, land, and sea ice components for seasonal predictions are constructed through additional nudging experiments in the same coupled SPEAR models. A bias correction scheme called ocean tendency adjustment (OTA) is applied to coupled model seasonal predictions to reduce model drift. OTA applies the climatological temperature and salinity increments obtained from ODA as three-dimensional tendency terms to the MOM6 ocean component of the coupled SPEAR models. Based on preliminary retrospective seasonal forecasts, we demonstrate that OTA reduces model drift-especially sea surface temperature (SST) forecast drift-in coupled model predictions and improves seasonal prediction skill for applications such as El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. None eng geoscientificInformation