edu.ucar.gdex::d651000 eng; USA utf-8 dataset NSF NCAR Geoscience Data Exchange datahelp@ucar.edu https://gdex.ucar.edu NSF NCAR Geoscience Data Exchange The Geoscience Data Exchange (GDEX), managed by the Computational and Information Systems Laboratory (CISL) at NSF NCAR, contains a large collection of meteorological, atmospheric composition, and oceanographic observations, and operational and reanalysis model outputs, integrated with NSF NCAR High Performance Compute services to support atmospheric and geosciences research. download pointOfContact 2026-04-22T04:05:47Z ISO 19115 Geographic Information - Metadata ISO19115:2003/Cor 1 2006 https://doi.org/10.5065/R056-8M70 CESM1 CAM5 BGC Medium Ensemble d651000 2014-08-26 publication Sanderson, Benjamin Mark author Oleson, Keith W. author Strand, Warren Gary author Lehner, Flavio author O'Neill, Brian C. author NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research publisher There is growing evidence that the role internal variability plays in our confidence in future climate projections has been under-appreciated in past assessments of model projections for the coming decades. In light of this, a 15 member ensemble has been produced to complement the existing 30 member "Large Ensemble" conducted with the Community Earth System Model (CESM). In contrast to the Large Ensemble, which explored the variability in RCP8.5, our new ensemble uses the moderate mitigation scenario represented by RCP4.5. By comparing outputs from these two ensembles, we assess at what point in the future the climates conditioned on the two scenarios will begin to significantly diverge. We find in general that while internal variability is a significant component of uncertainty for periods before 2050, there is evidence of a significantly increased risk of extreme warm events in some regions as early as 2030 in RCP8.5 relative to RCP4.5. Furthermore, the period 2061-2080 sees largely separate joint distributions of annual mean temperature and precipitation in most regions for the two ensembles. Hence, in the CESM's representation of the Earth System for the latter portion of the 21st century, the range of climatic states which might be expected in the RCP8.5 scenario is significantly and detectably further removed from today's climate state than the RCP4.5 scenario even in the presence of internal variability. completed datahelp@ucar.edu pointOfContact notPlanned dataset https://gdex.ucar.edu/images/ds_logos/default_200_200.png Logo thumbnail from URL png HDF5/NetCDF4 dataset Resource Type 2021-03-30 revision 4.4 DataCite Metadata Working Group orginator resourceTypeGeneral CESM > NCAR Community Earth System Model U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Change Master Directory GCMD 2026-04-15 revision 23.7 NASA Global Change Master Directory orginator Valids List: Platforms EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE > SEA LEVEL PRESSURE EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE > UPPER AIR TEMPERATURE EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > ATMOSPHERIC WATER VAPOR > WATER VAPOR INDICATORS > HUMIDITY > SPECIFIC HUMIDITY EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > ATMOSPHERIC WINDS > SURFACE WINDS > U/V WIND COMPONENTS EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > ATMOSPHERIC WINDS > WIND DYNAMICS > VERTICAL WIND VELOCITY/SPEED EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > PRECIPITATION > LIQUID PRECIPITATION > RAIN EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > PRECIPITATION > PRECIPITATION PROFILES > LATENT HEAT FLUX U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Change Master Directory GCMD 2026-04-15 revision 23.7 NASA Global Change Master Directory orginator Valids List: Science and Services Keywords Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License None eng utf-8 climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere 2006-01 2080-12 NSF NCAR Geoscience Data Exchange datahelp@ucar.edu https://gdex.ucar.edu distributor 23315991.77 https://gdex.ucar.edu/datasets/d651000/ https Dataset Description Related Link information https://gdex.ucar.edu/datasets/d651000/dataaccess/ https Data Access Related Link download none asNeeded