edu.ucar.opensky::articles:14205 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-26T03:25:32.457014 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7mw2j4v Solar radiation management impacts on agriculture in China: A case study in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) 2014-07-27T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7mw2j4v https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020630 Xia, L. author Robock, A. author Cole, J. author Curry, C. author Ji, D. author Jones, A. author Kravitz, B. author Moore, J. author Muri, H. author Niemeier, U. author Singh, B. author Tilmes, Simone author Watanabe, S. author Yoon, J. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher Geoengineering via solar radiation management could affect agricultural productivity due to changes in temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. To study rice and maize production changes in China, we used results from 10 climate models participating in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G2 scenario to force the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop model. G2 prescribes an insolation reduction to balance a 1% a−1 increase in CO₂ concentration (1pctCO₂) for 50 years. We first evaluated the DSSAT model using 30 years (1978–2007) of daily observed weather records and agriculture practices for 25 major agriculture provinces in China and compared the results to observations of yield. We then created three sets of climate forcing for 42 locations in China for DSSAT from each climate model experiment: (1) 1pctCO₂, (2) G2, and (3) G2 with constant CO₂ concentration (409 ppm) and compared the resulting agricultural responses. In the DSSAT simulations: (1) Without changing management practices, the combined effect of simulated climate changes due to geoengineering and CO₂ fertilization during the last 15 years of solar reduction would change rice production in China by −3.0 ± 4.0 megaton (Mt) (2.4 ± 4.0%) as compared with 1pctCO₂ and increase Chinese maize production by 18.1 ± 6.0 Mt (13.9 ± 5.9%). (2) The termination of geoengineering shows negligible impacts on rice production but a 19.6 Mt (11.9%) reduction of maize production as compared to the last 15 years of geoengineering. (3) The CO₂ fertilization effect compensates for the deleterious impacts of changes in temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation due to geoengineering on rice production, increasing rice production by 8.6 Mt. The elevated CO₂ concentration enhances maize production in G2, contributing 7.7 Mt (42.4%) to the total increase. Using the DSSAT crop model, virtually all of the climate models agree on the sign of the responses, even though the spread across models is large. This suggests that solar radiation management would have little impact on rice production in China but could increase maize production. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright 2014 American Geophysical Union. None eng geoscientificInformation