edu.ucar.opensky::articles:26760 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-24T19:20:36.016999 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7bp06w8 https://doi.org/10.25921/Z31N-3M26 https Related Dataset #1 Mapped Observation-Based Oceanic Dissolved Inorganic Carbon Monthly fields from 2004 through 2019 (MOBO-DIC2004-2019) (NCEI Accession 0277099) https://doi.org/10.25921/Z72M-YZ67 https Related Dataset #2 GOBAI-O2: A Global Gridded Monthly Dataset of Ocean Interior Dissolved Oxygen Concentrations Based on Shipboard and Autonomous Observations (NCEI Accession 0259304) https://doi.org/10.26024/KGMP-C556 https Related Dataset #3 CESM2 Large Ensemble Community Project Skillful multi-month predictions of ecosystem stressors in the surface and subsurface ocean 2023-11-01T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7bp06w8 https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003605 Mogen, S. C. author Lovenduski, N. S. author Yeager, Stephen author Keppler, L. author Sharp, J. author Bograd, S. J. author Quiros, N. C. author Di Lorenzo, E. author Hazen, E. L. author Jacox, M. G. author Buil, M. P. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher Anthropogenic carbon emissions and associated climate change are driving rapid warming, acidification, and deoxygenation in the ocean, which increasingly stress marine ecosystems. On top of long-term trends, short term variability of marine stressors can have major implications for marine ecosystems and their management. As such, there is a growing need for predictions of marine ecosystem stressors on monthly, seasonal, and multi-month timescales. Previous studies have demonstrated the ability to make reliable predictions of the surface ocean physical and biogeochemical state months to years in advance, but few studies have investigated forecast skill of multiple stressors simultaneously or assessed the forecast skill below the surface. Here, we use the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Seasonal to Multiyear Large Ensemble (SMYLE) along with novel observation-based biogeochemical and physical products to quantify the predictive skill of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), dissolved oxygen, and temperature in the surface and subsurface ocean. CESM SMYLE demonstrates high physical and biogeochemical predictive skill multiple months in advance in key oceanic regions and frequently outperforms persistence forecasts. We find up to 10 months of skillful forecasts, with particularly high skill in the Northeast Pacific (Gulf of Alaska and California Current Large Marine Ecosystems) for temperature, surface DIC, and subsurface oxygen. Our findings suggest that dynamical marine ecosystem prediction could support actionable advice for decision making. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. None eng geoscientificInformation