edu.ucar.opensky::articles:42478 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-24T18:05:00.512702 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d72n56mr https://doi.org/10.5065/D6RX99HX https Related Service #1 Cheyenne: SGI ICE XA Cluster Modulation of tropical cyclogenesis by convectively coupled Kelvin waves 2024-10-01T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d72n56mr https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-24-0052.1 Rios-Berrios, Rosimar author Tang, B. H. author Davis, Christopher A. author Martinez, J. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher Tropical cyclone numbers can vary from week to week within a hurricane season. Recent studies suggest that convectively coupled Kelvin waves can be partly responsible for such variability. However, the precise physical mechanisms responsible for that modulation remain uncertain partly due to the inability of previous studies to isolate the effects of Kelvin waves from other factors. This study uses an idealized modeling framework—called an aquaplanet—to uniquely isolate the effects of Kelvin waves on tropical cyclogenesis. The framework also captures the convective-scale dynamics of both tropical cyclones and Kelvin waves. Our results confirm an uptick in tropical cyclogenesis after the passage of a Kelvin wave—twice as many tropical cyclones form 2 days after a Kelvin wave peak than at any other time lag from the peak. A detailed composite analysis shows anomalously weak ventilation during and after (or to the west of) the Kelvin wave peak. The weak ventilation stems primarily from anomalously moist conditions, with weaker vertical wind shear playing a secondary role. In contrast to previous studies, our results demonstrate that Kelvin waves modulate both kinematic and thermodynamic synoptic-scale conditions that are necessary for tropical cyclone formation. These results suggest that numerical models must capture the three-dimensional structure of Kelvin waves to produce accurate subseasonal predictions of tropical cyclone activity. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication <span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:10pt;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;" data-sheets-root="1">Copyright 2024 American Meteorological Society (AMS).</span> None eng geoscientificInformation