edu.ucar.opensky::articles:6911 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-26T15:38:32.521840 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7fb536f Spatial patterns of probabilistic temperature change projections from a multivariate Bayesian analysis 2007-03-31T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7fb536f https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027754 Furrer, R. author Knutti, Reto author Sain, Stephan R. author Nychka, Douglas author Meehl, Gerald A. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher We present probabilistic projections for spatial patterns of future temperature change using a multivariate Bayesian analysis. The methodology is applied to the output from 21 global coupled climate models used for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The statistical technique is based on the assumption that spatial patterns of climate change can be separated into a large scale signal related to the true forced climate change and a small scale signal due to model bias and variability. The different scales are represented via dimension reduction techniques in a hierarchical Bayesian model. Posterior probabilities are obtained with a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. We show that with 66% (90%) probability 79% (48%) of the land areas warm by more than 2°C by the end of the century for the SRES A1B scenario. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright 2007 American Geophysical Union. None eng geoscientificInformation