edu.ucar.opensky::articles:42354 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-24T18:03:56.766287 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7nz8czt Contrasting response of Mesoscale Convective Systems occurrence over tropical land and ocean to increased sea surface temperature 2024-11-01T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7nz8czt https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL109251 Dong, Wenhao author Zhao, M. author Harris, L. author Cheng, K. author ZHOU, L. author Ramaswamy, V. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are pivotal in global energy/water cycles and typically produce extreme weather events. Despite their importance, our understanding of their future change remains limited, largely due to inadequate representation in current climate models. Here, using a global storm‐resolving model that accurately simulates MCSs, we conclude contrasting responses to increased SST in their occurrence, that is, notable decreases over land but increases over ocean. This land‐ocean contrast is attributed to the changes in convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition (CIN). Over land, notable rises in CIN alongside moderate increases in CAPE effectively suppress (favor) weak to moderate (intense) MCSs, resulting in an overall reduction in MCS occurrences. In contrast, substantial increases in CAPE with minimal changes in CIN over ocean contribute to a significant rise in MCS occurrences. The divergent response in MCS occurrence has profound impacts on both mean and extreme precipitation. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. None eng geoscientificInformation