edu.ucar.opensky::articles:23016 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-25T15:22:59.236233 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7xd14vw Improving Wind Energy Forecasting through Numerical Weather Prediction Model Development 2019-11-01T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7xd14vw https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0040.1 Olson, J. B. author Kenyon, J. S. author Djalalova, I. author Bianco, L. author Turner, D. D. author Pichugina, Y. author Choukulkar, A. author Toy, M. D. author Brown, J. M. author Angevine, W. M. author Akish, E. author Bao, J. author Jiménez Munoz, Pedro A. author Kosović, Branko author Lundquist, K. A. author Draxl, C. author Lundquist, J. K. author McCaa, J. author McCaffrey, K. author Lantz, K. author Long, C. author Wilczak, J. author Banta, R. author Marquis, M. author Redfern, S. author Berg, L. K. author Shaw, W. author Cline, J. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher The primary goal of the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) is to advance the state-of-the-art of wind energy forecasting in complex terrain. To achieve this goal, a comprehensive 18-month field measurement campaign was conducted in the region of the Columbia River basin. The observations were used to diagnose and quantify systematic forecast errors in the operational High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model during weather events of particular concern to wind energy forecasting. Examples of such events are cold pools, gap flows, thermal troughs/marine pushes, mountain waves, and topographic wakes. WFIP2 model development has focused on the boundary layer and surface-layer schemes, cloud-radiation interaction, the representation of drag associated with subgrid-scale topography, and the representation of wind farms in the HRRR. Additionally, refinements to numerical methods have helped to improve some of the common forecast error modes, especially the high wind speed biases associated with early erosion of mountain-valley cold pools. This study describes the model development and testing undertaken during WFIP2 and demonstrates forecast improvements. Specifically, WFIP2 found that mean absolute errors in rotor-layer wind speed forecasts could be reduced by 5%-20% in winter by improving the turbulent mixing lengths, horizontal diffusion, and gravity wave drag. The model improvements made in WFIP2 are also shown to be applicable to regions outside of complex terrain. Ongoing and future challenges in model development will also be discussed. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright 2019 American Meteorological Society. None eng geoscientificInformation