Identification

Title

Skillful multiyear prediction of flood frequency along the US Northeast Coast using a high-resolution modeling system

Abstract

Using tide gauge (TG) observations, we identify pronounced multidecadal fluctuations in sea level along the US Northeast Coast (USNEC) superimposed on a long-term increasing trend. This multidecadal sea level variability, largely arising from fluctuations in the buoyancy-driven Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), substantially modulates the frequency of flood occurrences along the USNEC and serves as a source of multiyear predictability. Using an initialized dynamical downscaling decadal prediction system with a 1 / 12 ° ocean resolution, we demonstrate that flood frequency along the USNEC can be predicted on multiyear to decadal timescales. The long-term increasing trend in flood frequency, mainly driven by increasing greenhouse gases and associated radiative forcing changes, can be predicted a decade ahead. Furthermore, detrended flood frequency along the USNEC exhibits prediction skill for up to 3 years, as verified by TG observation. This multiyear prediction skill is achieved using prediction models that are initialized from our best estimate of observed AMOC.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7w95fmn

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2025-05-16T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

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Conformity

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Constraints related to access and use

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Use constraints

<span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:10pt;font-style:normal;" data-sheets-root="1">Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.</span>

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact