edu.ucar.opensky::articles:7037 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-26T15:46:25.478483 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7571c8m When will the Antarctic ozone hole recover? 2006-06-30T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7571c8m https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL025232 Newman, P. author Nash, E. author Kawa, S. author Montzka, S. author Schauffler, Sue author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher The Antarctic ozone hole demonstrates large-scale, man-made affects on our atmosphere. Surface observations now show that human produced ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) are declining. The ozone hole should soon start to diminish because of this decline. We demonstrate a parametric model of ozone hole area that is based upon a new algorithm for estimating chlorine and bromine levels over Antarctica and late spring Antarctic stratospheric temperatures. This model explains 95% of the ozone hole area's variance. We then use future ODS levels to predict ozone hole recovery. Full recovery to 1980 levels will occur around 2068 and the area will very slowly decline between 2001 and 2017. Detection of a statistically significant decrease of area will not occur until about 2024. We further show that nominal Antarctic stratospheric greenhouse gas forced temperature change should have a small impact on the ozone hole. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright 2006 American Geophysical Union. None eng geoscientificInformation