edu.ucar.opensky::articles:26577 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-24T19:25:16.025142 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7tt4w04 Kilometer-scale multimodel and multiphysics ensemble simulations of a Mesoscale Convective System in the lee of the Tibetan Plateau: Implications for climate simulations 2023-09-01T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7tt4w04 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0240.1 Kukulies, J. author Prein, Andreas author Curio, J. author Yu, H. author Chen, D. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher Kilometer-scale climate model simulations are useful tools to investigate past and future changes in extreme precipitation, particularly in mountain regions, where convection is influenced by complex topography and land-atmosphere interactions. In this study, we evaluate simulations of a flood-producing mesoscale convective system (MCS) downstream of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in the Sichuan basin from a kilometer-scale multimodel and multiphysics ensemble. The aim is to better understand the physical processes that need to be correctly simulated for successfully capturing downstream MCS formation. We assess how the ensemble members simulate these processes and how sensitive the simulations are to different model configurations. The preceding vortex evolution over the TP, its interaction with the jet stream, and water vapor advection into the basin are identified as key processes for the MCS formation. Most modeling systems struggle to capture the interaction between the vortex and jet stream, and perturbing the model physics has little impact, while constraining the largescale flow by spectral nudging improves the simulation. This suggests that an accurate representation of the large-scale forcing is crucial to correctly simulate the MCS and associated precipitation. To verify whether the identified shortcomings systematically affect the MCS climatology in longer-term simulations, we evaluate a 1-yr WRF simulation and find that the seasonal cycle and spatial distribution of MCSs are reasonably well captured and not improved by spectral nudging. While the simulations of the MCS case highlight challenges in extreme precipitation forecasting, we conclude that these challenges do not systematically affect simulated climatological MCS characteristics. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright 2023 American Meteorological Society (AMS). None eng geoscientificInformation