edu.ucar.opensky::articles:23901 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-25T15:03:18.432019 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7tt4v9r Linkage between projected precipitation and atmospheric thermodynamic changes 2020-08-15T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7tt4v9r https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0785.1 Chen, J. author Dai, Aiguo author Zhang, Y. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher Light-moderate precipitation is projected to decrease whereas heavy precipitation may increase under greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced global warming, while atmospheric convective available potential energy (CAPE) over most of the globe and convective inhibition (CIN) over land are projected to increase. The underlying processes for these precipitation changes are not fully understood. Here, projected precipitation changes are analyzed using 3-hourly data from simulations by a fully coupled climate model, and their link to the CAPE and CIN changes is examined. The model approximately captures the spatial patterns in the mean precipitation frequencies and the significant correlation between the precipitation frequencies or intensity and CAPE over most of the globe or CIN over tropical oceans seen in reanalysis, and it projects decreased light-moderate precipitation (0.01 < P <= 1 mm h(-1)) but increased heavy precipitation (P > 1 mm h(-1) ) in a warmer climate. Results show that most of the light-moderate precipitation events occur under low-CAPE and/or low-CIN conditions, which are projected to decrease greatly in a warmer climate as increased temperature and humidity shift many of such cases into moderate-high CAPE or CIN cases. This results in large decreases in the light-moderate precipitation events. In contrast, increases in heavy precipitation result primarily from its increased probability under given CAPE and CIN, with a secondary contribution from the CAPE/CIN frequency changes. The increased probability for heavy precipitation partly results from a shift of the precipitation histogram toward higher intensity that could result from a uniform percentage increase in precipitation intensity due to increased water vapor in a warmer climate. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright 2020 American Meteorological Society (AMS). None eng geoscientificInformation