edu.ucar.opensky::articles:10352 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-26T14:50:07.340521 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7ws8tp2 Forecasting skill of model averages 2010-07-01T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7ws8tp2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-009-0350-y Winter, Larry author Nychka, Douglas author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher Given a collection of science-based computational models that all estimate states of the same environmental system, we compare the forecast skill of the average of the collection to the skills of the individual members. We illustrate our results through an analysis of regional climate model data and give general criteria for the average to perform more or less skillfully than the most skillful individual model, the "best" model. The average will only be more skillful than the best model if the individual models in the collection produce very different forecasts; if the individual forecasts generally agree, the average will not be as skillful as the best model. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication This is a preprint of an article submitted for consideration in Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment. The final publication is available at www.springerlink.com None eng geoscientificInformation