edu.ucar.opensky::articles:22301 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-25T15:41:30.478281 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7kp8546 https://doi.org/10.5065/D6D50K46 https Related Dataset #1 GPCP Version 1.2 One-Degree Daily Precipitation Data Set Subseasonal Week 3-5 Surface Air Temperature Prediction During Boreal Wintertime in a GFDL Model 2019-01-08T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7kp8546 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081314 Xiang, Baoqiang author LIN, S. author Zhao, M. author Johnson, N. C. author Yang, Xiaosong author Jiang, X. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher With a Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled model, the subseasonal prediction of wintertime (December-February) surface air temperature (SAT) is investigated through the analysis of 11-year hindcasts. Significant subseasonal week 3-5 correlation skill exists over a large portion of the global land domain, and the predictability originates primarily from the eight most predictable SAT modes. The first three modes, identified as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation mode, the North Atlantic Oscillation mode, and the Eurasia Meridional Dipole mode, can be skillfully predicted more than 5weeks in advance. The North Atlantic Oscillation and Eurasia Meridional Dipole modes are strongly correlated with the initial stratospheric polar vortex strength, highlighting the role of stratosphere in subseasonal prediction. Interestingly, the Madden-Julian Oscillation is not essential for the subseasonal land SAT prediction in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. The spatial correlation skill exhibits considerable intraseasonal and interannual fluctuations, indicative of the importance to identify the time window of opportunity for subseasonal prediction. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright 2019 American Geophysical Union. None eng geoscientificInformation