edu.ucar.opensky::articles:42550 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-24T18:01:57.372395 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7df6wjj https://doi.org/10.5067/P4HZB9N27EKU https Related Dataset #1 NCEP/CPC L3 Half Hourly 4km Global (60S - 60N) Merged IR V1 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13148844 https Related Dataset #2 IFS CAT EDR Ensemble Data https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12656765 https Related Software #1 Mission Support System Software Severe convectively induced turbulence hitting a passenger aircraft and its forecast by the ECMWF IFS model 2024-12-01T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7df6wjj https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113037 Gisinger, S. author Bramberger, Martina author Dörnbrack, A. author Bechtold, P. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher Atmospheric turbulence poses a major risk to aviation. Besides airframe damage, it can cause injuries of passengers and crew when encountered unexpectedly. The Singapore Airlines flight SQ321 was on its way from London to Singapore when severe turbulence was encountered over Myanmar on 21 May 2024. In this study, it is analyzed how well the turbulence was predicted by the turbulent eddy dissipation rate (EDR) forecast index of the ECMWF integrated forecasting system (IFS). It was found that ECMWF IFS was able to predict the convection and associated turbulence 24&#160;hr in advance. The state&#8208;of&#8208;the&#8208;art probabilistic EDR forecasts based on IFS ensemble members predicted probabilities for EDR between 10% and 40% over Myanmar with higher values for shorter lead time (8&#8208;hr forecast). Individual members predicted EDR . Knowledge about the characteristics of convection in the IFS forecasts is required to make proper use of the probabilities determined from the ensemble for such cases. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication <span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:10pt;font-style:normal;" data-sheets-root="1">Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.</span> None eng geoscientificInformation