Identification

Title

Anthropogenic climate change will likely outpace coral range expansion

Abstract

Past coral range expansions suggest that high-latitude environments may serve as refugia, potentially buffering coral biodiversity loss due to climate change. We explore this possibility for corals globally, using a dynamic metacommunity model incorporating temperature, photosynthetically available radiation, pH, and four distinct, interacting coral assemblages. This model reasonably reproduces the observed distribution and recent decline of corals across the Indo-Pacific and Caribbean. Our simulations suggest that there is a mismatch between the timescales of coral reef decline and range expansion under future predicted climate change. Whereas the most severe declines in coral cover will likely occur within 40 to 80 years, large-scale coral reef expansion requires centuries. The absence of large-scale coral refugia in the face of rapid anthropogenic climate change emphasizes the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate nonthermal stressors for corals, both in the tropics and in higher latitudes.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d73t9nn4

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2025-06-06T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact