edu.ucar.opensky::articles:22999 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-25T15:21:02.982941 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d77w6gc8 https://doi.org/10.5065/D6CR5RD9 https Related Dataset #1 ERA-Interim Project Understanding future changes in tropical cyclogenesis using Self-Organizing Maps 2019-12-01T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d77w6gc8 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100235 Jaye, Abigail B. author Bruyere, Cindy L. author Done, James M. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher Future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) genesis locations and frequency are explored by identifying relationships between TC genesis and dominant daily large-scale patterns, and evaluating the strength of these relationships under a climate change scenario. Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs) are used to characterize the dominant large-scale patterns in reanalysis data and in a regional climate model ensemble simulation of current climate. The main features on the resulting sea level pressure (SLP) SOMs are nodes that resemble both the negative and positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation, as well as blocking and ridging regimes. The frequency of the NAO-like nodes is strongly linked to TC genesis frequency and preferred genesis locations. This link is used to develop a statistical relationship between the frequency of large scale SLP patterns and TC genesis. The application of this relationship to an ensemble regional climate simulation under a future climate forcing scenario predicts fewer TCs, which is consistent with the regional climate model that explicitly simulates fewer TCs. This demonstrates the strength of the relationships and their use in assessing future changes in TC genesis locations and frequency. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright 2019 Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license. None eng geoscientificInformation