edu.ucar.opensky::articles:26089 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-24T19:39:37.835514 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7r78k47 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7562575 https Related JournalArticle #1 Skillful decadal prediction skill over the Southern Ocean based on SPEAR Model-Analogs Skillful decadal prediction skill over the Southern Ocean based on GFDL SPEAR Model-Analogs 2023-02-01T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7r78k47 https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/acb90e Zhang, Liping author Delworth, T. L. author Yang, X. author Morioka, Y. author Zeng, F. author Lu, Feiyu author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher The Model-Analogs technique is used in the present study to assess the decadal sea surface temperature (SST) prediction skill over the Southern Ocean (SO). The Model-Analogs here is based on reanalysis products and model control simulations that have similar to 1 degrees ocean/ice (refined to 0.5 degrees at high latitudes) components and 100 km atmosphere/land components. It is found that the model analog hindcasts show comparable skills with the initialized retrospective decadal hindcasts south of 50 degrees S, with even higher skills over the Weddell Sea at longer lead years. The high SST skills primarily arise from the successful capture of SO deep convection states. This deep ocean memory and the associated decadal predictability are also clearly seen when we assess the Model-Analogs technique in a perfect model context. Within 30 degrees S-50 degrees S latitudinal band, the model analog hindcasts show low skills. When we include the externally forced signals estimated from the large ensemble simulations, the model analog hindcasts and initialized decadal hindcasts show identical skills. The Model-Analogs method therefore provides a great baseline for developing future decadal forecast systems. It is unclear whether such analog techniques would also be successful with models that explicitly resolve ocean mesoscale eddies or other small-scale processes. This area of research needs to be explored further. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. None eng geoscientificInformation