edu.ucar.opensky::articles:18715 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-26T02:46:33.751968 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7862j4v What would it take to achieve the Paris temperature targets? 2016-07-16T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7862j4v https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069563 Sanderson, Benjamin author O'Neill, Brian C. author Tebaldi, Claudia author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit warming to 2 or 1.5 degrees C above preindustrial level, although combined Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) are likely insufficient to achieve these targets. We propose a set of idealized emission pathways consistent with the targets. If countries reduce emissions in line with their INDCs, the 2 degrees C threshold could be avoided only if net zero greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) are achieved by 2085 and late century negative emissions are considerably in excess of those assumed in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 (net -5GtCO(2)/yr, compared with -1.5GtCO(2)/yr in RCP2.6). More aggressive near-term reductions would allow 2 degrees C to be avoided with less end-of-century carbon removal capacity. A 10% cut in GHGEs by 2030 (relative to 2015) could likely achieve 2 degrees C with RCP2.6 level negative emissions. The 1.5 degrees C target requires GHGEs to be reduced by almost a third by 2030 and net zero by 2050, while a 50year overshoot of 1.5 degrees C allows net zero GHGEs by 2060. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright 2016 Authors.This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made. None eng geoscientificInformation